In this world, how long can fossil fuels such as oil and gas sustain? With the continuous development of new energy sources, people are now increasingly desperate to eliminate fossil fuels. The world has been a long time suffering from these contaminated things.
To tell you, not far away, it is likely that 15 years later, you would like to see a petrol car again, just as you would like to see a carburetor on the street.
At the end of 2017, experts and scholars from the petrochemical industry around the world, government departments, and executives from major oil companies gathered to discuss the prospects for oil. Fossil fuels can still be active for several years – the 2018 International Energy Development Summit Forum in Beijing. Held. The forum was a grand event for the oil industry, attracting many big names in the energy industry, such as Daniel Jerkin, an authoritative expert in the energy industry, and Muhammad Barkhin, the Secretary General of OPEC.
In this forum, the authoritative expert Daniel Yerkin is shocking and tells everyone an important news that Saudi Arabia’s latest solar power project has reached 1.7 cents/kWh (kilowatt-hour) and is the lowest solar power price in the world at present. .
1.7 cents/kWh is equivalent to 0.1156 yuan/kWh, which is not only far lower than other renewable energy power generation prices, but also far below the coal power price, even if it was originally considered the lowest price of China's coal power.
Similarly, at the 2017 Beijing International Wind Energy Conference held some time ago, the Deputy Director of the New Energy Division of the National Energy Administration, Liang Zhipeng, proposed that wind power should be basically realized in the next 3 to 5 years without relying on subsidies for development, and by 2020, the wind should be abandoned and abandoned. Water, abandon the light problem ... This shows that even if the wind power is purely in the market competition, the price advantage will not be weaker than traditional energy.
Wind power and solar energy all have a decisive impact on oil. How long can oil use? The theme of the conference forum is "The Crossroads of the Energy Industry: Seeking a New Balance."
The oil industry has faced a lot of fate in recent years. In 2014, the US shale oil reached the market and broke the original balance. The oil price fell from more than 100 US dollars/barrel to a minimum of more than 20 US dollars a barrel. The industry is full of uncertainty. . How will the future oil industry coexist with renewable energy, electric vehicles, new energy utilization methods, and new economic models? Daniel Jerkin’s answer is that the oil industry will enter the new normal from the unbalanced and new balance.
Many experts in the oil industry attending this forum are still full of confidence in the oil industry. It is widely believed that the peak of oil application has not yet arrived and the peak will be between 2025 and 2035. They believe that with the increase of the world’s population and the needs of developing countries’ development, the demand for oil will continue to increase. The peak of oil is expected to come after 2040. In other words, there are still three to four decades of good time for oil, and it is now somewhat premature to assert that new energy will replace oil.
Even with the biggest impact on gasoline vehicles, experts believe that the replacement of new energy is not so strong. According to data from the global petrochemical business data company (HIS), the replacement of oil products by new energy vehicles by 2030 is not disruptive. What will have a greater impact on future oil consumption is whether the performance of the fuel economy will increase, rather than the arrival of electric vehicles. With the improvement of fuel economy, the success of driverless technology and the rapid development of electric vehicles, the demand for global oil will gradually decrease.
In fact, no one should be too self-righteous. This is the case with new energy, and so is the oil and gas industry. In the next decade or so, new energy will most likely achieve breakthroughs, and innovative technologies may emerge at any time. This is not based on people's awareness. Such as hydrogen technology breakthroughs, such as the practical application of controlled nuclear fusion, such as battery storage technology breakthroughs - last year, the high energy storage battery "Holy Grail" technology has been done in the United States laboratory, made a permanent convenience A battery that stores electrical energy. In this way, the substitution and use of energy will be very convenient: people can obtain energy from renewable energy sources such as wind power and hydropower at any time, and batteries can be stored when they are used up. The technology that people use to charge the battery through the grid now tends to lose 30% to 40% of their electricity when the electricity is going in and out of the battery through the grid. But these new batteries are more efficient and can store and recycle renewable energy. The cost of inputting and exporting energy will be even lower. This is called smart grid and smart battery. Each household can use its own solar energy or wind energy on the roof to generate electricity. If they can't use their own energy, they can simply send excess electricity to people in another place to realize their own profits.
In short, breakthroughs in new energy technologies do not come from one point, but from multiple points and from multiple directions. It is not easy to say how long oil will last for years. In the words of industry experts, the energy industry is calm and turbulent.
